I surrender to Apple

You have to hand it to Apple for its awesome-ness .  I saw an article this past week that talked about Apple’s 64.5% share in EST/iVOD consumer spending in 2010.  Sure, they are down from 74.4% in 2009, but owning more than two thirds of any market is an impressive feat.

However, we have seen competition intensify with Zune, PlayStation, Amazon and Wal-Mart.  And competition will continue to intensify with industry plays like Ultraviolet , confusing people even further.  So what’s on my mind today is this:  is there room for more competitors and new stuff in video? Or will people settle for (or to some, surrender to) the simplicity and workability of Apple?

Is there room?

My unsolicited opinion is yes, of course there is always room for new stuff.  But any new companies have a sheer cliff to scale.  Not only does the service or product have to be absolutely perfect and better than Apple, but people have to know about it.  And that takes loads of innovation, marketing, product refreshing  and starting all over again.  In this day and age, once a product/service is released, it begins becoming obsolete on day 2.

Who’s it gonna be?

So who’s going to be the courageous new competitor?  One camp out there thinks that – of all things – Wal-Mart and Vudu have a shot.  Well, I think that’s ridiculous.  Wal-Mart just doesn’t innovate or have the right customer base.  They sell cheap crap made in China to make life more affordable – hardly a fit for digital entertainment.

On my optimistic days, I think Ultraviolet has a shot.  They’ve got the right players and the right ideas.  With Microsoft and Sony as members, they represent 17% of the market.  I’m definitely anxious to see them get on with it and launch something, because it could be very cool.

Day 2

But then day 2 arrives.  That’s when the pessimist Fool starts pestering me:  with the consortium-style-United-Nations-procedures way of making decisions, I find it very hard to see UV executing on rapid product enhancements and innovations that are so critical.  There’s just too many companies and people involved.  As a small example, Microsoft’s Zune is out for itself, and Sony is world famous for its ability to not really do anything more once it does something cool (remember the Walkman).

So, in answer to my self-imposed question, given where the market is today, I think people will happily surrender to Apple.   Even though Motorolla’s vision of 1984 may come true, at least my stuff will work, and my Apple shares will be worth something.

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Comments on: "I surrender to Apple" (4)

  1. New Model Activist said:

    I like it that Apple have dropped 15% off their share of the market, its natural selection, it’s about people making choices.
    It’s a bit like Egypt and Mubarak, he doesn’t want to go away either!
    Apple trap people into using only their devices and brainwash them into thinking the apple way is the only way. Well its not. In the interests of moving forward, people make choices and want new and different ways of doing what they want to do. Apples devices are great, yes, but so are many others, choice and competition will always win through!
    Vive La Difference!!!!

    Like

    • Hmmm, you’ve got a point. But I think Apple’s lead is so enormous that it’s going to take a long time, some huge Apple fumbles, and some big companies working together to make a dent in their share. Sure, Apple fell 15%, and that’s a positive sign that customers are choosing other ways. Let’s hope that we are able to choose from better products out there!

      Like

  2. octopusman said:

    Apple will never cede their position as number 1 until Jobs is no longer there!! Once he has gone the company will then fall into the trap of many companies, forgetting what made them good as they start to become internal facing.
    Lets hope it happens soon!!

    Like

  3. Michael Media said:

    Ultraviolet you reckon. I reckon online content providers will be chosen on the basis of which devices being used to orchestrate the experience as much as by convenience and/or cost. I guess this is where the UV consortium are coming from. All power to them! But in the mean time it’s good old Pitate Bay for me!

    Actually I’d rather I could find what I want in my Zune Movie Marketplace but there’s nothing but the latest straight to DVD flops there.

    Laters Fool,
    M.M

    Like

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