Hype Cycles

I came across a very cool graphic from Gartner that is a concise representation of the cycle that products/services/innovations all go through from inception to ultimately their plateau.

The thought that occurred to me after looking at this was this: where do you think Ultraviolet sits on this curve?  My point of view is very direct: after more than two years of 60+ companies working at creating something workable, we haven’t seen anything yet.  Nada.  Zero.  I believe that UV hardly registers in the lower left hand side of this graph.

As a result, I worry for the member companies that while agreement seems to be close on specifications and the myriad legal agreements, there is still a long way to go in order to slog through the Hype Cycle – in other words, getting to mainstream adoption.  And the scary part for UV is that the market changes every day with new disruptions and technologies.

So what should UV do?  I think it should take a long hard look at this Hype Cycle and figure out how to build an operating structure that will allow it to iterate and release 1st, 2nd and 3rd generation products as quickly as possible.  But with its 60+ members and each having varying degrees of influence, it’s going to be tough.

I also think UV should read this blurb on Hype Cycles, and get ready for a long road to a Plateau of Productivity.

Gartner analysts position technologies along the Hype Cycle based on a consensus assessment of hype and maturity. To represent the varying speeds, all technologies on the Hype Cycle are assigned to a “years to mainstream adoption” category (for example, two to five years), representing how long they will take to reach the Plateau of Productivity from their current position on the Hype Cycle — that is, how far they are from the start of mainstream adoption.

Hype Cycles help technology planners to decide when to invest in that technology. A Hype Cycle is a useful educational tool that:

  • Establishes the expectation that most technologies will inevitably progress through the pattern of overenthusiasm and disillusionment before proving their real value.
  • Provides a snapshot of the relative level and pace of maturity of technologies within a certain segment of the IT world, such as a technology area, horizontal or vertical business market, or a certain demographic audience.
  • Has a simple and clear message. Companies should not invest in a technology just because it is being hyped, nor should they ignore a technology just because it is not living up to early overexpectations.

What do you think?  Where does UV sit on this Hype Cycle?

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